Economic forecasts dampen for 2022

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has revised its forecast for GDP growth in 2022, which is now expected to grow at half the rate as it did in 2021.

GDP is now expected to grow in 2022 by 3.6%, revised down from 4.2% and compared to 7.5% growth in 2021.

The downgrade largely reflects a deterioration in consumer confidence and weak business investment amid a cost of living crisis and rising inflation.

GDP growth will slow sharply again to 1.3% in 2023 before easing to 1.2% in 2024 due to limited activity following the cost-of-living squeeze, according to the BCC.

It also warned CPI inflation could peak at 8% in Q2 2022 and outpace wage growth – significantly higher than the Bank of England’s 6% forecast.

CPI inflation is now expected to fall back to the Bank of England’s 2% target in Q4 2024, over a year later than the previous forecast of Q2 2023.

Hannah Essex, co-executive director of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

“Our downgraded projections for the UK economy highlight the critical challenges facing business communities and households against the backdrop of the growing uncertainty surrounding both the UK and global economy.

“Coming hot on the heels of two years of a pandemic-induced squeeze on cashflow and investment plans, it is clear the Government must do more to support UK business and the wider economy.”

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